WTI has crossed $100 as the market begins to price the scenario Goldman Sachs flagged months ago: not just a constrained Strait of Hormuz, but a simultaneous threat to the Red Sea exit that Saudi Arabia has used as its remaining seaborne outlet.

Brent settled above $101 on Wednesday, September 9, and WTI followed through the $100 level on Thursday morning in a sharp rally. Physical benchmarks had already been there. Dated Brent has held above $100 since September 3. Murban, DME Oman, the OPEC basket, and the Indian basket were already trading over that threshold. Futures are […]

Continue Reading

China Crude Buying Jumps, and Fuel Exports Jump 29% – Jeff Curry is Spot On. It’s about the lack of refining capacity.

Chinese refiners are stepping back into the crude market while flooding product markets with extra gasoline and diesel, just as the rest of the world is running short of both barrels and refining capacity. August data show crude imports rising 6.2% from July to 8.93 million barrels per day, while refined product exports jumped 29% […]

Continue Reading

Houthis Target Saudi Oil Tanker in Red Sea Missile and Drone Attack, and Oil Goes Down

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi forces claimed a ballistic missile strike on the Saudi-flagged VLCC Amzan (IMO 9693745, Bahri-owned, approximately 320,926 deadweight tons, built 2014) in the northern Red Sea off Yanbu on August 24, 2026. The attack formed part of the group’s ongoing “siege for siege” campaign enforcing a maritime ban on Saudi-linked shipping, which began […]

Continue Reading

Will Iraq leave OPEC, or will OPEC allow Iraq to double exports within six years?

Iraq is pushing aggressively to more than double its oil production capacity, targeting 8–10 million barrels per day (bpd) within six years—up from roughly 4 million bpd before the recent Iran-related regional conflict disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping. On August 21, 2026, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi announced the goal at the Baghdad Dialog conference and […]

Continue Reading

So Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz, Let’s See What Bessent’s Economic Isolation of Iran Could Look Like

As the Iran-U.S. conflict grinds toward the six-month mark in mid-August 2026, Tehran continues to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz—the critical chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG once flowed—while the United States maintains a naval blockade on Iranian ports and escalates economic pressure. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled […]

Continue Reading

Saudi Aramco estimates the world lost 2.6 billion barrels of oil since the US-Iran conflict began. What does this mean for consumers and investors?

Saudi Aramco has put a stark number on the energy fallout from the ongoing US-Iran conflict: more than 2.6 billion barrels of oil supply lost since fighting erupted in February 2026. That figure, first highlighted by Aramco CEO Amin Nasser in early August and amplified in a recent Reuters report widely shared on X by […]

Continue Reading