Even the most optimistic reopening of the Strait of Hormuz won’t deliver a quick fix. Physical barrels tell a far harsher story than paper futures. Art Berman (@aeberman12) nailed it in his May 25, 2026, post: There is no clean, modelable “successful reopening” of the Strait of Hormuz. Even in the wildly optimistic scenario, the […]
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In the shadow of the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran — marked by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the largest oil supply disruption in modern history — Saudi Arabia stands out as a clear winner. While many Gulf producers face sharp production cuts, export halts, and economic contractions, the Kingdom under Crown […]
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As the conflict between Iran and the U.S.-led coalition intensifies, Tehran is signaling a dangerous new front: the world’s undersea fiber-optic cables. Iranian state-linked media has explicitly warned that the concentration of critical data cables in the Strait of Hormuz creates a “vulnerable point” for the region’s digital economy — and by extension, the global […]
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Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer, is embarking on its most ambitious privatization and asset monetization drive in its 93-year history. The company aims to raise up to $35 billion by opening midstream, downstream, and non-core assets to Wall Street investors through sale-leaseback deals, minority stake sales, and infrastructure partnerships. This move is explicitly […]
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In a move that signals business-as-usual intent amid extraordinary disruption, OPEC+ delegates have outlined plans to press ahead with a series of oil production quota increases, aiming to fully unwind the final layer of voluntary cuts announced in 2023 by the end of September 2026. According to Bloomberg reporting, key members intend to raise targets […]
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Saudi Arabia has delivered a stark update to OPEC: its crude oil production plunged another 651,000 barrels per day (b/d) in April, hitting just 6.316 million b/d—the lowest level since the 1990 Gulf War. According to a monthly report from OPEC’s secretariat obtained by Bloomberg, the kingdom’s output has now fallen a cumulative 42% since […]
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This means restoring normal supply-demand equilibrium, rebuilding severely depleted global inventories, repositioning tankers and supply chains, restarting/rebalancing production flows, ending demand rationing/destruction, and removing the geopolitical risk premium that has driven price volatility and tightness. Nasser emphasized that simply reopening shipping routes (like the Strait of Hormuz) is not the same as market normalization, due […]
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As U.S. naval pressure intensifies around Iran’s ports and the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran is accelerating use of its overland rail connection to China as a sanctions-busting “back door.” The route, part of Beijing’s Belt and Road infrastructure push, offers a faster, blockade-resistant alternative for goods — but how much can it really move, especially […]
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Authorities in the United Arab Emirates’ Fujairah emirate have confirmed that a fire broke out at the Fujairah Oil Industries Zone (FOIZ) following a drone strike originating from Iran. Civil defense teams responded immediately and continue to contain the blaze, with no injuries reported. The incident comes amid heightened regional tensions, as Gulf states weigh […]
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The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced its withdrawal from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ alliance, effective May 1, 2026—marking the end of nearly 60 years of membership since 1967. This move strips OPEC of its third-largest producer and delivers a significant blow to the cartel’s ability to […]
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