The Venezuelan-owned refiner now expects $7.7 billion to $8 billion in 2026 EBITDA on surging fuel margins. Meanwhile, the court fight over who owns it reaches a federal appeals court today.
an arbitration award against Venezuela. On Nov. 25, 2025, Judge Leonard P. Stark approved a $5.9 billion bid from Amber Energy, an affiliate of Elliott Investment Management (Reuters), and he signed the sale order on Nov. 29.
As of this morning, the sale has not closed. Amber still needs a Treasury Department (OFAC) license, and filings through Oct. 13 show it had not been issued (Vene Economist). Venezuela’s government, now led by interim President Delcy Rodríguez (OGJ), is appealing. On Oct. 1 it asked the Third Circuit to pause the appeal for six months while it pursues a debt deal. On Oct. 13, the Justice Department told the court the U.S. “has no views to express at this time.” On Oct. 15 the court refused to postpone argument. As of Oct. 18, the public docket showed no ruling on the pause (Vene Economist). Argument is set for today at 11:30 a.m. ET (10:30 a.m. CT) in Philadelphia.
The creditors are a long list. Under the Amber deal, about $5.9 billion would be paid out to 15 creditors, including ConocoPhillips (OGJ). Holders of PDVSA’s 2020 bonds, which are backed by a pledge of Citgo shares, have their own claim (OFAC). ConocoPhillips says judgments attached to the PDV Holding shares top $20 billion (Vene Economist).
| Stu’s Take (opinion)
Citgo now expects $7.7 billion to $8 billion of EBITDA this year. That’s more than the $5.9 billion the court accepted for its parent company. EBITDA isn’t a sale price, but the gap shows how far this market has moved since that auction. The trucker paying $6.32 for diesel doesn’t care who owns the refinery. He cares whether it runs flat out, and refiners are already at 95% to 100%. Strong margins are the market telling us to build and restart capacity. Citgo has struggled to make long-term decisions while the sale stays frozen. Settle the ownership, and let whoever owns those plants invest. |
Sources
- Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance: Citgo Raises Profit Outlook by $2 Billion as Fuel Margins Surge (Oct. 19, 2026)
- Citgo: Second-Quarter 2026 Financial and Operational Results (Aug. 13, 2026)
- AAA national average fuel prices (accessed Oct. 21, 2026, 6:28 a.m. CT)
- Reuters via Union Leader: US coaxing refiners to produce more diesel as prices surge (Oct. 20, 2026)
- Reuters: US judge approves bid from Elliott affiliate for Citgo Petroleum parent (Nov. 25, 2025)
- S. District Court for the District of Delaware: Sale order, Crystallex v. Venezuela (Nov. 29, 2025)
- S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit docket, No. 25-3347 (CourtListener)
- Vene Economist: Citgo: Venezuela seeks six months for talks that OFAC does not authorize (Oct. 14, updated Oct. 18, 2026)
- Oil & Gas Journal: US freezes Citgo board to protect pending $5.9-billion acquisition (Sept. 15, 2026)
- OFAC FAQ 595: General License 5Z (updated Sept. 16, 2026)
- Reuters: Citgo struggles with long-term direction as sale process remains frozen (Feb. 10, 2026)