The Americas Are the New Oil Growth Engine: +1.66 Million Barrels a Day in 2026 as OPEC Output Falls 5.4 Million

EIA’s October outlook has the U.S., Brazil, Guyana, Canada and Argentina adding barrels with no Gulf chokepoint in the way, while Hormuz flows collapsed and OPEC supply is forecast to drop by nearly a fifth.

For consumers, the growth in supply is coming from this hemisphere. In its October Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration has liquids supply from North, Central and South America growing by 1.29 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024, 1.49 mb/d in 2025 and a forecast 1.66 mb/d in 2026 (EIA Table 3b).

Over the same 2026 forecast, EIA has OPEC production falling 5.36 mb/d (EIA STEO data), and output from non-OPEC Middle East producers (including Qatar, the UAE and Oman) falling 1.22 mb/d (EIA Table 3b). The Americas are growing while Gulf output falls.

Chart 1. Year-over-year liquids production change by region, 2024-2026. 2026 is an EIA forecast (STEO, Oct. 2026).

Why chokepoints matter so much this year

Before the war, about 20 mb/d of oil, around a quarter of seaborne trade, moved through the Strait of Hormuz (IEA factsheet). EIA estimates Hormuz flows dropped from 21.6 mb/d in 4Q25 to 4.9 mb/d in 2Q26, while Saudi barrels rerouted via the East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea pushed Bab el-Mandeb flows to 8.1 mb/d in 2Q26 (EIA; Rigzone). Bab el-Mandeb also faces risk: the IEA cites renewed attacks at Bab el-Mandeb (IEA, Sept.) and the Sept. 11 bombing of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline (IEA, Oct.).

Qatar is the starkest example. Iranian strikes knocked out about 17% of its LNG export capacity for three to five years (Reuters; CNBC; QNA), and EIA now forecasts Qatar’s liquids output at 0.87 mb/d in 2026, down from 1.88 mb/d in 2025 (EIA Table 3b). The IEA says September Hormuz flows recovered to 10.9 mb/d, but calls the rebound “fragile” (IEA, Oct.).

Chart 2. Oil flows through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, 1Q25-2Q26 (EIA).

Country by country: who is adding barrels

United States. Still the giant: EIA has U.S. liquids rising 0.67 mb/d to 24.39 mb/d in 2026 (forecast). In the Gulf of America, the August “Big Beautiful Gulf 3” lease sale drew $82.7 million in high bids on 59 blocks (BOEM).

Brazil. Forecast to add 0.61 mb/d in 2026, the biggest gain after the U.S. (EIA). Petrobras started the 180,000 b/d P-79 on May 1, three months early, lifting Búzios capacity to about 1.33 mb/d (Petrobras), after the 180,000 b/d P-78 began production on Dec. 31, 2025 (Petrobras).

Guyana. From zero in 2019 to about 900,000 b/d today from four Exxon-operated FPSOs (Guyana DPI). The fifth, the 250,000 b/d Errea Wittu at Uaru, is targeted for 4Q26 start-up; the 250,000 b/d Jaguar FPSO for Whiptail (2027) and the 150,000 b/d Hammerhead project (2029; Exxon is aiming for 2028, per Reuters) follow, taking capacity toward 1.46 mb/d by 2029 (Industrial Info).

Canada. EIA forecasts +0.13 mb/d in 2026. The expanded Trans Mountain pipeline, open since May 2024, reported record throughput of 840,000 b/d in Q2 2026, 94% of its roughly 890,000 b/d capacity (Trans Mountain).

Argentina. EIA has Argentina at 1.08 mb/d in 2026, up 0.10 mb/d. YPF says its net Vaca Muerta shale output hit 248,000 b/d, nearly its year-end goal of 250,000 (Bloomberg Línea). The Vaca Muerta Oil Sur export pipeline is designed for up to 550,000 b/d, expandable to about 700,000 (VMOS). Its early start-up has slipped to December 2026, with the first export cargo expected in March 2027 (EnergyIA).

Suriname and Mexico. TotalEnergies’ 220,000 b/d GranMorgu project is on track for first oil in mid-2028 (Reuters). Mexico is flat: EIA has it at 1.86 mb/d in 2026, versus 1.87 in 2025 and 2.01 in 2024 (EIA).

Chart 3. 2026 forecast change in liquids output by country (EIA STEO, Oct. 2026).

The other side of the ledger: Middle East and Africa

The Gulf still has enormous capacity; the problem is getting it out. Aramco said in Oct. 2025 that it can sustain 12 mb/d of maximum capacity (Reuters). The UAE, which quit OPEC effective May 1 (Reuters; WAM), has an ADNOC target of 5 mb/d of capacity by 2027, per EIA (EIA), and is fast-tracking a pipeline to bypass Hormuz (Reuters). Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar have no comparable bypass (IEA). In Africa, Nigeria averaged 1.72 mb/d of crude and condensate in September, or 1.53 mb/d of crude alone (NUPRC; Punch), well below its 2.5 mb/d 2026 target (Punch).

Inside OPEC’s falling total are Africa’s members too. EIA’s non-OPEC African producers, led by Angola (which left OPEC effective Jan. 1, 2024; ANGOP) and Egypt, grow just 0.05 mb/d in 2026 (EIA Table 3b). Compare that with Guyana alone at +0.17 mb/d. Nigeria’s output remains below its 2.5 mb/d target (Punch).

EIA expects OPEC output to rebound by about 5.2 mb/d in 2027 if flows normalize (EIA STEO data).

What the three agencies agree on

All three monthly reports point the same way, even though they measure differently. OPEC’s October report names Brazil, the U.S., Canada and Argentina as the main drivers of non-DoC (non-OPEC+) liquids growth of about 0.6 mb/d in 2026 (OPEC MOMR). The IEA’s September report said its “Americas Quintet” adds 1.4 mb/d in 2026 (IEA), and its October report projects world supply falling 5.8 mb/d this year (IEA).

What it means for consumers

EIA forecasts regular gasoline averaging $3.90/gal in 2026 versus $3.10 in 2025, and diesel $5.20 versus $3.66 (EIA STEO).

Relief is forecast, not promised: EIA has Brent falling from $96 in 2026 to $84 in 2027 (EIA), but that assumes Gulf flows keep recovering.

What it means for investors

The growth sits with operators in Guyana’s Stabroek block (ExxonMobil 45%, Chevron 30%, CNOOC 25%; Guyana DPI), Petrobras, YPF and Vaca Muerta partners, Canadian oil sands producers and pipelines, and TotalEnergies in Suriname.

Watch execution dates (Errea Wittu first oil, VMOS start-up now targeted for December 2026, first VMOS export cargo in March 2027, GranMorgu in 2028), pipeline capacity and Gulf de-escalation, which could pull prices down fast. This is not investment advice.

Caveats

2026 figures are forecasts from EIA STEO (Oct. 6, 2026), IEA OMR (Oct. 14) and OPEC MOMR (Oct. 13). They will be revised.
The agencies define regions differently: OPEC’s “non-DoC,” the IEA’s “Americas Quintet” and EIA’s regions are not interchangeable. Chart numbers are EIA only.
Liquids include crude, condensate, NGLs and biofuels; much of U.S. growth is NGLs, per OPEC (OPEC/IMFC).
Venezuela is an OPEC member in the Americas and sits in EIA’s OPEC total. Africa’s OPEC members (Nigeria, Libya, Algeria and others) are also in that total.

Stu’s Take

I have been saying it for years: energy security is national security. Look at the 1.66 mb/d of Americas growth EIA forecasts for 2026 next to the 5.36 mb/d drop in OPEC output, and you see why.

When Hormuz went from 21.6 mb/d to 4.9 mb/d, barrels from Houston, Búzios and Stabroek kept sailing. Guyana went from nothing to about 900,000 b/d in seven years. Brazil’s P-79 came online three months early. That is execution.

The Gulf is not finished, but in a year when the shipping lanes broke, the dependable growth came from places where a tanker never has to pass a hostile coastline. Without the Americas’ extra barrels, prices at the pump would likely be worse.

Consumers are paying for this war at the pump, with diesel forecast at $5.20 this year. The answer is to keep building pipelines like Trans Mountain and VMOS, keep leasing the Gulf of America, and stop treating producers in our own hemisphere as the problem. Have a great day, and God bless.

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Appendix: Sources and Links

A. Data tables (EIA STEO, Oct. 6, 2026; forecast completed Oct. 1)

Liquids, mb/d	2023	2024	2025	2026F	YoY 24	YoY 25	YoY 26F
Americas (N.+C./S.)	36.99	38.28	39.77	41.43	+1.29	+1.49	+1.66
United States	22.00	22.88	23.73	24.39	+0.87	+0.85	+0.67
Canada	5.76	6.00	6.25	6.38	+0.24	+0.26	+0.13
Mexico	2.12	2.01	1.87	1.86	-0.11	-0.14	-0.00
Brazil	4.28	4.28	4.65	5.26	-0.00	+0.37	+0.61
Guyana	0.39	0.62	0.75	0.92	+0.23	+0.13	+0.17
Argentina	0.82	0.89	0.98	1.08	+0.07	+0.09	+0.10
Colombia	0.81	0.80	0.78	0.76	-0.01	-0.03	-0.02
Non-OPEC Middle East	7.36	7.38	7.54	6.32	+0.03	+0.16	-1.22
Qatar	1.83	1.85	1.88	0.88	+0.03	+0.03	-1.00
UAE	4.18	4.24	4.34	4.13	+0.06	+0.09	-0.21
Non-OPEC Africa	2.61	2.55	2.58	2.63	-0.06	+0.04	+0.05
OPEC total	28.52	28.43	29.33	23.97	-0.09	+0.90	-5.36
World	102.53	103.15	106.27	101.14	+0.62	+3.12	-5.14

Annual values are simple averages of EIA monthly values in STEO_m.xlsx (Tables 3b/3c), which closely match (within 0.04 mb/d) the annual columns in the PDF tables. 2023-2025 are history/estimates; 2026 combines estimates through Sept. with forecasts. F = forecast.

B. Chokepoint flows (EIA, published Aug. 12, 2026), mb/d

Chokepoint	1Q25	2Q25	3Q25	4Q25	1Q26	2Q26
Strait of Hormuz	20.9	21.0	21.3	21.6	14.9	4.9
Bab el-Mandeb	3.9	4.5	4.6	5.4	5.6	8.1

C. Development programs (as of Oct. 24, 2026)

Project	Capacity	Status / timing	Source
Guyana: 4 FPSOs (Liza 1/2, Payara, Yellowtail/ONE GUYANA)	810 kb/d nameplate; ~900 kb/d output	Producing	Industrial Info, DPI
Guyana: Uaru / Errea Wittu	250 kb/d	First oil targeted 4Q26	Industrial Info
Guyana: Whiptail / Jaguar	250 kb/d	2027	Industrial Info
Guyana: Hammerhead	150 kb/d	2029 (Exxon aiming for 2028)	Industrial Info, Reuters, Guyana Standard
Brazil: P-78 (Búzios)	180 kb/d	Started Dec. 31, 2025	Petrobras 6-K
Brazil: P-79 (Búzios 8)	180 kb/d	Started May 1, 2026	Petrobras
Argentina: VMOS pipeline	Up to 550 kb/d (about 700 kb/d expandable)	Early start-up slipped to December 2026; first export cargo expected March 2027 (EnergyIA, Oct. 23, 2026)	VMOS, EnergyIA
Argentina: YPF shale	248 kb/d net	Target 250 kb/d by end-2026	Bloomberg Línea
Canada: Trans Mountain (TMX)	~890 kb/d	~840 kb/d record, Q2 2026	Trans Mountain
U.S.: BBG3 Gulf lease sale	$82.7M high bids, 59 blocks	Held Aug. 12, 2026	BOEM, OGJ
Suriname: GranMorgu (Block 58)	220 kb/d	First oil mid-2028	Reuters, OER
Saudi Arabia: Aramco	12 mb/d max. sustainable capacity	Exports constrained by Hormuz/Red Sea risk	Reuters, IEA
UAE: ADNOC	5 mb/d capacity target	By 2027; Hormuz bypass pipeline fast-tracked	EIA, Reuters
Nigeria	2.5 mb/d target	1.72 mb/d crude+condensate (1.53 crude), Sept. 2026	NUPRC, Punch, Punch

D. Background

The 2026 Iran war disrupted Gulf production and shipping from March onward. Hormuz flows fell to 4.9 mb/d in 2Q26 (EIA) before recovering to 10.9 mb/d in September (IEA). Qatar lost about 17% of LNG capacity (Reuters, Mar. 19). The UAE left OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026 (Reuters, Apr. 28). Western Hemisphere supply reaches markets via the Gulf of America, the Atlantic and the Pacific (TMX to Burnaby) without transiting a Middle East chokepoint.

E. Methodology

Regional and country YoY growth = EIA annual average (year) minus annual average (prior year), from the October 2026 STEO workbook. “Americas” = EIA North America (U.S., Canada, Mexico) + Central and South America (excludes Venezuela, which EIA counts within OPEC). EIA lists the UAE and Qatar as non-OPEC. IEA and OPEC figures are quoted as published, not recomputed. Chokepoint data from EIA’s Global Energy Security table. Prices: EIA STEO Table 2 annual averages. All URLs accessed Oct. 24, 2026. Charts: Energy News Beat. OPEC 2026 change uses the workbook monthly average (-5.36); the Table 3a PDF shows -5.40 on a day-weighted basis. Cover image AI-generated and illustrative.

F. Not verified / omitted

Vaca Muerta basin total omitted pending official data. Iraq capacity targets omitted for lack of a primary source. Company production guidance beyond the projects listed is not used.