Crude slipped on talks in Tehran, but diesel at $6.35 and heating oil near $4.83 wholesale are what families feel. What happens with Iran, not a campaign promise, will set the price at your pump on Nov. 3.

By Energy News Beat | Oct. 27, 2026 | Prices checked 2:51 p.m. CT

If you filled up today, you probably noticed something small and welcome: gasoline is drifting lower. If you drive a truck, run a farm or heat your home with oil, you probably noticed something else. Diesel and heating oil are still punishing, and winter is coming.

On Tuesday, oil futures fell almost $2 a barrel. Reuters reported that U.S. West Texas Intermediate settled at $99.90, down $1.86, and Brent settled at $113.88, down $1.93. That puts WTI back under $100. Prices are still near six-month highs, and Reuters noted that an agreement to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran “remains elusive.”

With the election one week away, the biggest swing factor for what you pay on Nov. 3 appears to be a decision being weighed in Washington and Tehran about war or peace.

Talks in Tehran, a scare at Ras Tanura

Representatives of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan held talks in Tehran on Monday, and the four countries agreed to keep talking, according to Iranian state media as cited by Reuters. On Sunday (Oct. 25), President Trump said he was approaching a decision on whether to strike a deal with Iran or step up military operations, as summarized by The Edge; CNBC reported he is weighing an agreement or further military action.

The day was not calm. Early in the session, crude jumped after Iranian state broadcaster IRIB reported that missiles had targeted Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, Newsquawk reported. WTI touched $102.82 before falling back. That damage claim comes from Iranian state media. Later reports said Saudi Arabia had contained a fire, and Newsquawk noted there had been “no independent confirmation.” Reuters separately reported that Yemen’s Houthis said they struck the refinery with a ballistic missile. We have not seen Saudi or independent confirmation of any damage.

Then the market turned. Prices fell when Iran’s Supreme Leader called for proposals on acceptable terms to end the war, Newsquawk reported. That is the pattern right now: scary headlines push prices up, and any hint of diplomacy pulls them back down.

What you are paying right now

When we checked AAA at 2:51 p.m. CT on Tuesday, the national average for regular was $4.266 a gallon. That is down from $4.286 yesterday and $4.480 a month ago, but up from $3.052 a year ago. Federal data tell the same story: the EIA weekly average for regular was $4.269 on Oct. 26, down 1.5 cents from the week before.

Diesel is a different story. AAA had diesel at $6.352, compared with $3.662 a year ago. That is about 73% higher, nearly double the roughly 40% increase for gasoline. Diesel set its AAA record of $6.528 on Sept. 22, so today is not far below the worst.

Diesel moves goods, so it shows up on store shelves. It runs the trucks that bring food to your grocery store, the tractors on the farm and the delivery vans in your neighborhood. When diesel stays high, those costs seep into prices for almost everything.

Heating oil: the winter bill nobody is talking about

If you heat with oil, this part is for you. Wholesale heating oil in New York Harbor was $4.83 a gallon on Oct. 20, according to EIA. That is above its early-April level of $4.36, though below the 2026 high of $5.16 set Sept. 15. The residential price matters more for families. The EIA residential heating oil average was $6.19 a gallon on Oct. 19, up from $3.53 a year earlier.

Washington has taken one concrete step. On Oct. 21, the Department of Energy announced an exchange of up to 315,000 barrels from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve. Companies that borrow the fuel must return the same volume plus a premium. Under the DOE request for proposals, returns run from January to September 2027. Deliveries are scheduled to finish by Nov. 13, and bids were due at 11 a.m. CT today. That is about 13.2 million gallons, roughly a third of the reserve, according to the New England Fuel Institute.

A side note: the first Russian diesel cargo since the 2022 ban, about 40,000 metric tons on the tanker Agioi Fanendes, loaded on Oct. 22 and was headed for New York, Reuters reported, with arrival expected Nov. 7. That is after Election Day. Marine Radar reported the ship’s tracking destination later changed to “for orders,” so where it ends up is not confirmed.

Why Iran matters for your price

UBS raised its forecast and now expects Brent to stay near $110 a barrel through year-end. Brent futures topped $117 last week, their highest since April (Reuters), after Iranian attacks on tankers around the Strait of Hormuz. SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop told Reuters there is “a significant risk premium” in crude for the chance of a U.S. or Israeli attack on Iran in the coming weeks.

GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan wrote on Oct. 26 that gasoline will likely stay above $4 and diesel above $6 heading into the election, even though the administration has “pulled virtually every lever available.” In plain terms, a real deal could take some of that risk premium out of prices. A strike or collapsed talks could put Brent back above $117 quickly.

Consumer view and investor view

• For households: Do not count on a big drop by Nov. 3. If you heat with oil, call your dealer now about budget plans or prepay offers, and compare more than one quote. If you can, avoid buying in a panic right after a scary headline. Prices have been swinging both ways within a single day.
• For drivers and small businesses: Diesel is the cost to watch. Fuel surcharges and delivery fees tend to follow it.
• For investors: This is a headline-driven market. Upcoming dates include API and EIA inventory data this week, December Brent expiry Friday and an OPEC+ meeting Sunday. Refiners have been earning big margins (Valero reported a refining margin of $39.24 per barrel of throughput in the third quarter, up from $13.14 a year earlier), while consumers and fuel-heavy industries carry the cost. Nothing here is investment advice.

Caveats, in fairness

• Futures are not pump prices. Retail prices lag crude by days or weeks, and taxes and regional supply matter.
• Brent prints differ by contract month. Newsquawk listed the January Brent contract at $109.41. We use Reuters’ front-month $113.88.
• The Ras Tanura damage claim is unconfirmed, and the sources disagree on who reported or claimed it.
• EIA spot data in our charts run through Oct. 20, and the residential heating oil series through Oct. 19.
• The administration has acted, including the reserve exchange and the Russian diesel supply deal. Some of those effects may take weeks to show up.

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Appendix

A. Sources (all accessed Oct. 27, 2026)

• Reuters (via Yahoo Finance), “Oil eases on Middle East diplomacy,” Oct. 27, 2026
• Newsquawk, Crude wrap: WTI (Z6) settles $1.86 lower at $99.90/bbl, Oct. 27, 2026
• The Edge, Commodities Wrap 27 October 2026 (citing CNBC; intraday quotes at 11:10 GMT)
• AAA, National average gas prices, read Oct. 27, 2026, 2:51 p.m. CT
• S. EIA, Weekly U.S. regular gasoline retail price (through Oct. 26, 2026)
• S. EIA, Weekly U.S. No. 2 diesel retail price (through Oct. 26, 2026)
• S. EIA, Weekly U.S. residential heating oil price (through Oct. 19, 2026)
• S. EIA, New York Harbor No. 2 heating oil spot price, daily (through Oct. 20, 2026)
• S. EIA, Cushing WTI spot price, daily (through Oct. 20, 2026)
• S. EIA, Europe Brent spot price FOB, daily (through Oct. 20, 2026)
• S. DOE, “Energy Department Authorizes Exchange from Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve,” Oct. 21, 2026
• S. DOE SPR Project Management Office, NEHHOR Exchange Request for Proposal DE-RP96-27PO00002, Oct. 21, 2026
• New England Fuel Institute, “DOE to Exchange Up to 315,000 Barrels from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve”
• Reuters (via Investing.com), US aims to loan about a third of heating oil reserve
• Reuters (via Yahoo Finance), First Russian diesel from Putin-Trump deal heading for US, Oct. 23, 2026
• S&P Global, Russian diesel tanker heads to New York as Kremlin claims regular shipments, Oct. 23, 2026
• Marine Radar, Agioi Fanendes loads Russian diesel for New York, Oct. 24, 2026
• USA Today, Trump downplays high gas prices as election approaches, Oct. 26, 2026
• Valero Energy, Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results, Oct. 22, 2026
• S. EIA Today in Energy, Refinery closures present risk for higher gasoline prices on the West Coast
• S. EIA FAQ, When was the last refinery built in the United States?
• S. EIA, Refinery Capacity Report 2026 (data as of Jan. 1, 2026)

B. Key primary-document excerpts

“Brent crude futures settled down $1.93, or 1.67%, at $113.88 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude settled down $1.86, or 1.83%, at $99.90.” (Reuters, Oct. 27, 2026) Link

“…after IRIB reported that Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery (550k BPD) had been targeted by missiles… Later reports suggested Saudi Arabia had contained a fire at the site, although there has been no independent confirmation.” (Newsquawk, Oct. 27, 2026) Link

“The Houthis said on Tuesday that they had struck Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil refinery, the biggest in the kingdom, with a ballistic missile.” (Reuters, Oct. 27, 2026) Link

“UBS said it expects Brent prices to stay elevated near $110 a barrel through the end of the year, an increase from its previous forecast for $100 a barrel at the end of the year.” (Reuters, Oct. 27, 2026) Link

“The U.S. Department of Energy today announced a Request for Proposal for an exchange of up to 315,000 barrels of ultra-low sulfur distillate (fuel oil) from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve (NEHHOR)… Fuel transfers or deliveries are scheduled to be completed by November 13, 2026.” (DOE, Oct. 21, 2026) Link

“…with the national average for gasoline likely to remain above $4 per gallon and diesel above $6 heading into the U.S. election, the relief motorists and policymakers have been hoping for remains elusive.” (Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy, via USA Today) Link

“The Malta-flagged medium-sized tanker Agioi Fanendes was loaded with 40,000 metric tons of ultra-low sulphur diesel in Russia’s Baltic port of Primorsk on October 22… It is expected to arrive in the United States on November 7.” (Reuters, Oct. 23, 2026) Link

“California is set to lose 17% of its oil refinery capacity over the next 12 months because of two planned refinery closures.” (EIA) Link

“The newest refinery with significant downstream unit capacity is Marathon’s facility in Garyville, Louisiana. That facility came online in 1977.” (EIA FAQ) Link

C. Data tables

C1. Crude benchmarks

C2. AAA national averages (read Oct. 27, 2026, 2:51 p.m. CT)

C3. EIA weekly retail and heating oil

C4. Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve exchange

C5. Refining capacity