The Federal Reserve can raise rates. The Treasury can issue bills. Neither institution can weld a crude distillation unit back together after a drone strike, add inches to a California products pipeline, or refill Gatun Lake. That is the story of September 2026: crude is still findable; diesel is not. The constraint has moved downstream, […]
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That is no longer a theoretical risk. With the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed to most traffic by the U.S.-Iran war and Houthi forces tightening their grip on Bab el-Mandeb, the kingdom’s last high-volume workaround—the East-West pipeline to Yanbu—is under fire. The combination threatens crude exports and the diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel that […]
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Saudi Arabia has told OPEC that its crude production collapsed again in August 2026, falling 1.9 million barrels per day to 6.238 million b/d—the lowest level the kingdom has reported since 1990, at the outset of the Gulf War. Riyadh attributed the drop to renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities that squeezed its export routes. That official communication, […]
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The war that began on February 28, 2026, with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, and Iran’s subsequent campaign against tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, has forced the largest rewrite of global oil trade routes in decades. Pre-war, roughly 20 million barrels per day of crude and products moved through Hormuz. Flows have […]
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Oil prices climbed more than 2% in Monday trading after the United States and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in weeks and Iran reported a supertanker striking sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The developments ended a period of relative calm in the six-month conflict and immediately revived supply-risk fears for a […]
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ENB Pub Note: This article first ran on The Crude Truth Substack, and I agree with Rey Trevino’s viewpoints. I would also add that Bloomberg is reporting this morning that Venezuela is weighing the benefits of remaining in OPEC. Now that it is not selling oil to China at a huge discount, it will be […]
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Iraq is pushing aggressively to more than double its oil production capacity, targeting 8–10 million barrels per day (bpd) within six years—up from roughly 4 million bpd before the recent Iran-related regional conflict disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping. On August 21, 2026, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi announced the goal at the Baghdad Dialog conference and […]
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Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement claimed on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, that its forces targeted Saudi Aramco’s Jazan (also spelled Jizan) oil refinery on the Red Sea coast in southwest Saudi Arabia with “a number of drones.” A Houthi military source told the group’s Saba news agency the strike was “precise” and conducted in response to […]
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The ambitious plan to build a major new crude oil export route from Iraq through Syria to the Mediterranean—explicitly designed to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz—will require at least four years of construction and an investment of $15 billion or more, according to sources directly involved in the project speaking to Reuters on […]
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As the Iran-U.S. conflict grinds toward the six-month mark in mid-August 2026, Tehran continues to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz—the critical chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG once flowed—while the United States maintains a naval blockade on Iranian ports and escalates economic pressure. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signaled […]
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