Her RealClearWorld essay names AOC, El-Sayed and Texas’s Railroad Commissioner-elect. We checked the quotes, the 86% fossil figure, the UK–Germany bill comparison — and the consumer traps already forming in Virginia, New York, Texas and California.

By Energy News Beat | As of November 9, 2026 CST

Sources opened Nov. 9, 2026 CST | Not investment advice

She asked the question voters already asked

In a RealClearWorld commentary dated Nov. 9, 2026, Brenda Shaffer asks: “So let’s ask: Will the blue tsunami really lower energy prices?” (Bio in Appendix E.)

She writes that Democrats “successfully blamed the Iran war” for hardship where “diesel, gasoline, and electricity prices stand front and center,” and that “Voters overwhelming [sic] voted to halt data center buildout, which they blame for high electricity prices.” Their main answers — leaving the Persian Gulf, renewable subsidies, barriers to domestic oil and gas, and stopping data-center growth — will not, she argues, “address the major challenges that have caused the current energy price surge.”

The people she names — and what the record actually shows

Shaffer writes: “Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, co-sponsor of the Green New Deal, aims to end all use and production of fossil fuels and phase out nuclear energy.” Ocasio-Cortez introduced H.Res. 109 (she is its lead sponsor). A 2019 office FAQ said the plan “would not include creating new nuclear plants” and aimed to “transition off of nuclear and all fossil fuels as soon as possible” (FAQ text provided to NPR); her office later called that FAQ an unfinished draft posted by mistake (FactCheck.org). The resolution text itself does not ban nuclear.

Michigan senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed, she says, “favors Michigan and the US transferring to 100% renewable energy and vows to ‘take on the Chevrons and the Exxons of the world.’” He won Michigan’s Senate seat on Nov. 3, defeating Mike Rogers. His Planet Detroit questionnaire says he “strongly support[s] transitioning our economy to 100% clean, renewable energy.” The “take on the Chevrons…” wording is Shaffer’s quote of him; a 2021 clip that resurfaced (as reposted by Townhall; original not reviewed) has him saying he does not think ‘the Chevrons and the Exxons of the world … should continue to exist.’ We quote Shaffer’s line as hers.

She cites “Joe Rosenthal … elected Texas Railroad Commissioner” as supporting “greater restrictions on Texas’s natural gas production.” The winner is Jon Rosenthal — first Democrat on the three-member Railroad Commission in more than 30 years; Republicans still hold a 2–1 majority (Texas Tribune, Nov. 9). His platform ends routine flaring and venting — tougher rules on how gas is produced (no routine flaring, leak detection, capture baselines, a wastewater-disposal fee), not a call to cut output (jonrosenthaltx.com). Her supply thesis — “reducing production of US oil and gas will raise US energy prices, not lower them” — is her economics

The 86% fossil share — and the UK–Germany bill warning

“[F]ossil fuels provide 86 percent of global energy consumption,” she writes. The Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 puts fossils at 86% of total energy supply (TES) in 2025 — not electricity alone.

“Ask the British and the Germans, where electricity prices are among the highest in the world.” Eurostat’s Oct. 30, 2026 note shows Germany at about €0.36/kWh in H1 2026 — among the EU’s highest, tied with Belgium and behind Ireland. The UK is no longer in Eurostat; Ofgem’s Oct.–Dec. 2026 cap is 26.32p/kWh (Direct Debit, VAT now removed), still well above the U.S. average. High prices are real; her causal link is incomplete — network charges, taxes, gas spikes and policy also share the bill.

America’s own gap: 52.5% higher in Harris states — correlation only

ENB’s equal-weighted check of EIA Table 5.6.B (Jan–Aug 2026 YTD, released Oct. 23) shows 23.90¢/kWh across 19 Harris states versus 15.67¢ across 31 Trump states — 52.5% higher, DC excluded (about 47% sales-weighted). Correlation, not causation. (State counterexamples in Appendix F.)

Data centers: about 4% of the past rate rise — and a PJM counterexample

Shaffer says halting data-center buildout “will have minimal impact on electricity prices, especially in the short to mid-term,” while helping China in AI. The Cost of Intelligence (Rana, Kaps, Netessine) estimates 2020–25 additions raised regional residential prices about $1.7/MWh (0.17¢/kWh) — about 4% of the observed residential price increase since 2020, not 4% of bills (author abstract). The Washington Post reported the study on Nov. 6 (Shannon Osaka).

Separately, the PJM market monitor found higher 2025/2026 capacity clearing prices were “primarily the result of existing and forecast data center load and market design flaws” (Part H, July 31, 2025).

The consumer problems already forming after the wave

Virginia. Gov. Abigail Spanberger, in office since January, will support Dominion–NextEra only with consumer conditions including a six-year residential base-rate freeze (29News, Oct. 20). Dominion and NextEra accepted some SCC staff and Attorney General recommendations but rejected others, including a three-year rate freeze and a 10-year staffing guarantee; Spanberger’s own asks — a six-year base-rate freeze and a $29 monthly bill credit — were not addressed in their rebuttal (Virginia Mercury, Nov. 4).

New York. The 2026 budget amended the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (2040 interim target; GWP100 accounting; regulations deadline moved to 2028 — Greenberg Traurig, May 2026). National Grid Ventures floated new Long Island gas units aimed at firing up by 2035 (NY Focus, Nov. 2).

Texas. Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa pledged a data-center approval pause until the Legislature writes protections — see Hinojosa Can Pause Data Centers. She Can’t Rewrite Texas Power Alone. A pause is not an automatic rate cut.

California. Voters rejected Proposition 45 (KQED). EIA warned in July 2025 that Phillips 66’s Los Angeles-area shutdown and Valero’s Benicia closure would remove about 17% of California’s refining capacity.

Congress. Sherrod Brown defeated appointed Sen. Jon Husted, who led the Senate Ratepayer Protection Act push (AP; Roll Call, Sept. 30). Who pays for large loads is now a majority question.

Diesel, Hormuz and the Northeast winter angle

Shaffer puts diesel at the center of the wartime shock — Russia and Saudi Arabia among top exporters after the U.S. (2025 rankings). Russia banned diesel exports in July 2026 (Reuters, July 8). Her claim China limited diesel exports “most likely to weaken Trump” is speculation; Reuters reported Beijing restricted fuel exports in March after the Iran war began, eased in July and paused October exports to preserve domestic stocks (Reuters, Oct. 1). Northeast heating oil: see Oil Crashed. Your Diesel Didn’t.

Shaffer writes that “Maine Senator-elect Troy Jackson told CNN that if the US pulls out of the Gulf, Iran will allow ships to pass,” then adds: “Good luck with that, Troy.” Jackson defeated Susan Collins. A Mediaite opinion column (Oct. 25) quotes CNN’s Dana Bash exchange, in which Jackson said, “I’m sure that if we move out of Iran, things will stabilize and prices will probably go down” — that excerpt does not contain her ships-to-pass line (Mediaite). Exact Shaffer wording also in Appendix B. CNN video not watched.

What consumers and investors should watch

Consumers. Midterms alone won’t cut the bill. Watch Virginia merger conditions, New York climate-law vs. gas reliability, Texas large-load rules after Hinojosa’s pledged pause, and California supply after the two closures EIA said would cut about 17% of capacity. Separate generation policy, T&D spend, fuel and weather.

Investors. Affordability pledges can freeze rates or slow large loads; diesel and refining still price geopolitics. PJM capacity prints can move before data halls energize. Not a buy/sell call.

Caveats and fair criticism

Shaffer is writing advocacy. Numbers that check out: 86% fossils; high German prices; El-Sayed’s 100% renewable stance; Rosenthal’s election. Soft edges: AOC’s nuclear FAQ history; Rosenthal’s flaring focus vs. her “greater restrictions on Texas’s natural gas production”; El-Sayed’s exact “take on” wording; China’s export motive. In October Bessent urged the World Bank to drop its ban on upstream oil and gas finance; the Bank still excludes gas exploration but funds some gas transport/LNG projects (Climate Home News, Oct. 16). Blue–red gaps are correlations. The 4% figure — covered by the Post on Nov. 6 — is a share of the increase, not of the bill. Forecasts are not facts.

Stu’s Take

Brenda Shaffer’s Nov. 9 question — will the blue wave lower energy prices? — is the right frame. Her 86% fossil share matches the Energy Institute’s 2026 Review (86% of 2025 TES). Germany ~€0.36/kWh in H1 2026 ranks among Europe’s highest (Eurostat). EIA Table 5.6.B still shows Harris-state residential averages at 23.90¢/kWh vs 15.67¢ in Trump states for Jan–Aug 2026 — 52.5% higher (about 47% sales-weighted), correlation only. Data centers explain about 4% of the 2020–25 residential rate increase (Kaps et al.) — not of bills — while PJM’s monitor cites existing and forecast data-center load plus market-design flaws in the 2025/26 auction. Watch Spanberger’s Dominion–NextEra conditions, New York’s climate-vs-gas collision, Hinojosa’s pledged Texas pause, California’s ~17% refining cut (EIA, July 2025), and who pays for large loads. Supply sets the ceiling; politics sets who gets the bill.

Buckle up, as the Republicans could not articulate energy policy impacts your pocketbook. We will see how all of this pans out, in the mean time, I highly recommend getting back up for your homes, water supply, food and energy backups. Rolling blackouts are projected to be on the rise in 2027, and with the political insatiability moving forward, the grid will follow.

Appendix A | Linked source list (access Nov. 9, 2026 CST)

1. Brenda Shaffer, Will the Blue Wave Lower American Energy Prices?, RealClearWorld, Nov. 9, 2026 — https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2026/11/09/will_the_blue_wave_lower_american_energy_prices_1215769.html
2. Brenda Shaffer X posts quoting her RCW piece, Nov. 9, 2026 — https://x.com/ProfBShaffer/status/2119801614374506819
3. Energy Institute, Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (fossils 86% of TES, 2025) — https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review
4. EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.B, YTD through Aug. 2026 (released Oct. 23, 2026) — https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_06_b
5. Eurostat news, Household electricity prices ease in 1st half of 2026, Oct. 30, 2026 — https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20261030-2
6. Ofgem, Changes to the energy price cap, 1 Oct–31 Dec 2026 (26.32p/kWh) — https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/news/changes-energy-price-cap-between-1-october-and-31-december-2026
7. Rana, Kaps, Netessine, The Cost of Intelligence — author abstract — https://christiankaps.com/papers/cost-of-intelligence-ai-data-centers-electricity-prices.html
8. Washington Post, Data centers may not be raising Americans’ electricity bills that much, Nov. 6, 2026 (Shannon Osaka) — https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2026/11/06/data-centers-may-not-be-raising-americans-electricity-bills-that-much/
9. Monitoring Analytics, IMM Analysis of 2025/2026 RPM BRA Part H, July 31, 2025 — https://www.monitoringanalytics.com/reports/Reports/2025/IMM_Analysis_of_the_20252026_RPM_Base_Residual_Auction_Part_H_20250731.pdf
10. Congress.gov, H.Res.109 (Green New Deal) bill text — Ocasio-Cortez lead sponsor — https://www.congress.gov/116/bills/hres109/BILLS-116hres109ih.htm
11. Green New Deal FAQ provided to NPR (House Western Caucus copy) — https://westerncaucus.house.gov/uploadedfiles/green-new-deal-faq_provided_to_npr_v2.pdf
12. FactCheck.org, The Facts on the Green New Deal, Feb. 2019 — https://www.factcheck.org/2019/02/the-facts-on-the-green-new-deal/
13. NPR, Abdul El-Sayed wins Michigan Senate race, Nov. 4, 2026 — https://www.npr.org/2026/11/04/g-s1-150029/michigan-senate-race-abdul-el-sayed-mike-rogers
14. Planet Detroit voter guide, Abdul El-Sayed questionnaire — https://voterguide.planetdetroit.org/candidates/abdul-el-sayed
15. Texas Tribune, Jon Rosenthal / Railroad Commission, Nov. 9, 2026 — https://www.texastribune.org/2026/11/09/jon-rosenthal-texas-railroad-commission-oil-gas/
16. Jon Rosenthal campaign, Clean Air / flaring priority — https://jonrosenthaltx.com/priority/clean-air-clean-water-safe-communities/
17. 29News, Spanberger 10 requirements for Dominion–NextEra, Oct. 20, 2026 — https://www.29news.com/2026/10/20/nextera-dominion-energy-must-meet-10-requirements-spanberger-support-merger/
18. Virginia Mercury, Dominion–NextEra accept some protections, Nov. 4, 2026 — https://virginiamercury.com/2026/11/04/dominion-nextera-accept-some-proposed-protections-in-merger-case-rejects-rate-and-staffing-freeze/
19. Greenberg Traurig, New York budget amends CLCPA, May 2026 — https://www.gtlaw.com/en/insights/2026/5/new-york-budget-amends-the-states-climate-leadership-and-community-protection-act
20. NY Focus, National Grid Long Island gas plants, Nov. 2, 2026 — https://nysfocus.com/2026/11/02/national-grid-long-island-gas-plants
21. KQED, Prop. 45 fails, Nov. 2026 — https://www.kqed.org/news/12107072/californians-rejecting-prop-45-in-early-returns
22. EIA Today in Energy, California refinery closures / 17% capacity, July 9, 2025 — https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65704
23. AP, Sherrod Brown flips Ohio Senate seat, Nov. 2026 — https://apnews.com/article/election-2026-ohio-senate-brown-husted-9e7ae9e1715c0e8203614aea6f71666d
24. Roll Call, Ratepayer Protection bill blocked in Senate again, Sept. 30, 2026 — https://rollcall.com/2026/09/30/voluntary-ratepayer-protection-bill-blocked-in-senate-again/
25. Mediaite (opinion), Dana Bash / Troy Jackson CNN exchange, Oct. 25, 2026 — https://www.mediaite.com/opinion/dana-bash-coaches-troy-jackson-through-the-details-of-the-iran-war/
26. AP / election coverage, Troy Jackson defeats Susan Collins, Nov. 2026 — https://apnews.com/article/maine-senate-susan-collins-troy-jackson-election-ac895e873f373e5560c4a6c137b2ac19
27. Reuters, Chinese refiners suspend Oct. fuel exports, Oct. 1, 2026 — https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinese-refiners-suspend-oct-fuel-exports-petrochina-cancels-cargoes-sources-say-2026-10-01/
28. Reuters, Russia bans diesel exports, July 8, 2026 — https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-diesel-exports-increase-domestic-supply-says-deputy-pm-2026-07-08/
29. Visual Capitalist, Global diesel exports by country 2025 — https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-diesel-exports-by-country-2025/
30. EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.4.B (sales / weighting for ~47% gap) — https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_04_b
31. Climate Home News, Under U.S. pressure World Bank says it will back gas where appropriate, Oct. 16, 2026 — https://www.climatechangenews.com/2026/10/16/under-us-pressure-world-bank-says-it-will-back-gas-where-appropriate/

Appendix B | Key excerpts (short fair-use quotes)

Shaffer thesis

“So let’s ask: Will the blue tsunami really lower energy prices?”

Source pointer: RCW ¶4

Shaffer on proposals

“None of these will address the major challenges that have caused the current energy price surge.”

Source pointer: RCW ¶5

Shaffer 86%

“…fossil fuels provide 86 percent of global energy consumption.”

Source pointer: RCW ¶8

Shaffer UK/Germany

“Ask the British and the Germans, where electricity prices are among the highest in the world.”

Source pointer: RCW ¶8

Shaffer supply

“…reducing production of US oil and gas will raise US energy prices, not lower them.”

Source pointer: RCW ¶7

Shaffer Troy (line 1)

“Maine Senator-elect Troy Jackson told CNN that if the US pulls out of the Gulf, Iran will allow ships to pass.”

Source pointer: RCW ¶12 — character-exact from Shaffer; Mediaite Oct. 25 excerpt does not contain this ships-to-pass line; CNN video not watched

Shaffer Troy (line 2)

“Good luck with that, Troy.”

Source pointer: RCW ¶13

Shaffer Xi

“If I were Xi Jinping, I would be popping the champagne corks.”

Source pointer: RCW ¶15

Shaffer Bessent

“Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent has not yet forced the World Bank to renew loans for natural gas development, let alone oil and coal.”

Source pointer: RCW ¶16

Shaffer close

“…it’s time for them to propose some viable alternatives.”

Source pointer: RCW ¶17

EI Review

“Fossil fuels … accounting for 86% of TES [2025].”

Source pointer: Energy Institute Statistical Review 2026

Kaps abstract

“…increasing prices by an average of 1.7 $/MWh, which accounts for 4% of the observed increase since 2020.”

Source pointer: Kaps author page

PJM IMM

“…primarily the result of existing and forecast data center load and market design flaws.”

Source pointer: IMM Part H 2025

EIA CA refining

“California is set to lose 17% of its oil refinery capacity…”

Source pointer: EIA Today in Energy, July 9, 2025

Mediaite / Jackson CNN

“I’m sure that if we move out of Iran, things will stabilize and prices will probably go down.”

Source pointer: Mediaite opinion, Oct. 25, 2026

Appendix C | Key data table (as-of dates)

Metric	Value	As-of / source
Harris-state residential equal-weight avg	23.90 ¢/kWh	Jan–Aug 2026 YTD; EIA 5.6.B (Oct. 23, 2026)
Trump-state residential equal-weight avg	15.67 ¢/kWh	Same
Gap (blue/red − 1), equal-weight	52.5%	DC excluded; 19 vs 31
Gap, sales-weighted	~47%	EIA Table 5.4.B sales weighting + 5.6.B rates
U.S. residential YTD (sales-weighted)	18.19 ¢/kWh	EIA 5.6.B
Global fossil share of TES	86% (2025)	Energy Institute Statistical Review 2026
DE household electricity	~€0.36/kWh	Eurostat H1 2026
UK Ofgem unit rate	26.32p/kWh	Oct–Dec 2026 cap, Direct Debit
Data-center share of residential *increase*	~4%	Kaps et al. working paper abstract
Residential $/MWh impact (study)	+$1.7/MWh	Same
CA refining capacity at risk from two closures	~17%	EIA Today in Energy, July 9, 2025

Appendix D | Methodology & limits

• Quotes from the RealClearWorld text as published Nov. 9, 2026, including the Troy Jackson ‘allow ships to pass’ line (¶12).
• EIA residential gap: equal-weight means across 19 Harris vs 31 Trump states (2024 presidential result), DC excluded, Table 5.6.B year-to-date through August 2026 (released Oct. 23, 2026); ~47% sales-weighted gap uses Table 5.4.B sales for weighting with 5.6.B rates.
• Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2026: fossil fuels 86% of 2025 total energy supply (TES).
• Eurostat Oct. 30, 2026 household electricity note: Germany about €0.36/kWh in H1 2026; Ofgem Oct.–Dec. 2026 cap 26.32p/kWh for the UK unit rate.
• Kaps/Rana/Netessine “Cost of Intelligence” findings from the authors’ public abstract (working paper; not treated as peer-reviewed); Washington Post Nov. 6 coverage linked for context.
• PJM independent market monitor Part H (July 31, 2025): higher 2025/26 BRA clearing prices primarily existing/forecast data-center load and market-design flaws.
• Texas Railroad Commissioner-elect identified as Jon Rosenthal (not “Joe”); flaring/venting and capture rules from his campaign priority page; Tribune for election/majority context.
• El-Sayed 100% renewable stance from his Planet Detroit questionnaire; the “take on the Chevrons…” wording is quoted as Shaffer presents it; 2021 clip wording quoted in body from Townhall repost (original not reviewed); election result via NPR.
• Shaffer’s RCW ¶12 attributes to Jackson that if the US pulls out of the Gulf, Iran will allow ships to pass (quoted as hers). Mediaite opinion column (Oct. 25) CNN excerpt does not contain that ships-to-pass line. CNN video not watched.
• Bessent / World Bank: October public comments and Climate Home News Oct. 16 reporting on upstream lending policy.
• China diesel-export motive presented as Shaffer’s speculation; Reuters March/July/October timeline cited for the export restrictions themselves.
• Reuters (July 8) and AP (Maine Senate) links are as listed by those outlets; full pages were not reviewed.
• Cross-references to other ENB pieces by title only. No forecasts presented as fact. Not investment advice.

Appendix E | Background

Responds to Brenda Shaffer, “Will the Blue Wave Lower American Energy Prices?,” RealClearWorld, Nov. 9, 2026. Author bio as published: U.S. Naval Postgraduate School Energy Academic Group faculty; Atlantic Council Global Energy Center senior fellow. Consumer context in-body: Gov. Spanberger / Dominion–NextEra conditions; New York CLCPA amendments and National Grid Ventures Long Island gas proposals; Texas data-center pause politics; California Prop. 45 and refining capacity; Ratepayer Protection Act politics.

Appendix F | Detail moved from body (sources retained)

EIA state counterexamples (from gap section)

Harris-state Washington 14.42¢ and Oregon 15.46¢; Trump-state Alaska 27.32¢, Michigan 21.73¢ and Pennsylvania 21.13¢ (EIA Table 5.6.B, Jan–Aug 2026 YTD). Geography, hydro, nuclear fleets, wildfire spend and utility structure matter alongside politics.

Thesis bridge (cut from §1)

The body is a fair reading of her named examples, checked against primary sources, plus bill math and blue-state policy traps consumers are about to feel.

UK/Germany drivers note

Separate policy-driven costs from fuel, weather and wires when reading European bill comparisons (Eurostat; Ofgem).

PJM timing note

Forecast load can lift capacity costs before data-center buildings energize (PJM IMM Part H context).