Cheaper gasoline margins did the early work, then the Iran war trade took over. Here is what the numbers show about the election-timing theory, and why Thanksgiving still looks like a record.
By Energy News Beat | As of Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2026, 7:30 AM CST
Prices change daily. EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report is due Thursday, Nov. 12, at 11 AM CST. Not investment advice.
Good news first: the national average for regular gas slipped to $3.9788 on Tuesday, according to AAA. That is the first time under $4 since July 20, per AAA data cited by NBC News. (GasBuddy, which tracks its own station data, dates it to early August.) Drivers are paying 17 cents less than a week ago. But regular is still 91 cents above a year ago, and diesel, at $6.1572, is $2.42 higher.
So what pushed prices down, and were they held up until the votes were counted?
The slide started in September
EIA’s weekly national average hit its fall peak of $4.478 on Sept. 21 (EIA). The year’s high in that series was $4.500 in May. By Nov. 2, the day before the election, it was $4.153, down 32.5 cents.
Crude didn’t do that. Brent futures settled at a six-month high of $117.64 on Oct. 30 (the expiring December contract). What got cheaper was gasoline itself. EPA let higher-vapor-pressure winter gasoline go on sale from Sept. 1, about two weeks early. Refineries came back from maintenance, running at 94.5% of capacity in the week ending Oct. 30, compared with 86.0% a year earlier. China issued a surprise fourth batch of fuel export quotas, and Asian gasoline margins collapsed from a record $50.53 a barrel on Oct. 1 to about $11 on Oct. 30 (Reuters).
By ENB’s own arithmetic on EIA spot prices (New York Harbor, Gulf Coast), the gasoline margin over WTI crude shrank by about 69 cents a gallon at New York Harbor and 78 cents on the Gulf Coast between the Sept. 21 and Nov. 2 weeks. Pump prices followed slowly, the familiar “rockets and feathers” pattern.
Then crude took over
On Nov. 2, Brent fell 7.6% to $104.77 after Iran signaled it would keep talking and President Trump twice answered “No” when NBC asked whether he would strike Iran after the midterms (NBC News). That afternoon he posted: “Oil Prices are DROPPING LIKE A ROCK, down almost $10 a Barrel, A RECORD, because people feel that there will not be a War with Iran” (Truth Social archive).
After Democrats won both chambers, Brent fell another 8.7% on Nov. 4 to $94.62 (The National). ING analysts said a Democratic Congress means “more scrutiny over the war, while funding it could become more difficult.” Vice President JD Vance wrote, “The reason we lost is the war” (NBC News). On Nov. 9, Trump said “Iran militarily is effectively over,” and oil slid again, briefly dipping below $90 on Tuesday (same).
Demand isn’t the story. Four-week gasoline demand was 8.64 million barrels a day through Oct. 30, about 0.4% below a year earlier, by ENB’s calculation from EIA data.
Was the price held high to hurt the administration?
Here is the claim at its strongest. Prices stayed above $4 through Election Day and fell soon after. The gap between wholesale and pump prices widened in October. A viral Nov. 8 X post said “emails” showed Sen. Chuck Schumer and OPEC kept prices high until the votes were counted, and that gas “dropped $.25 per gallon overnight.”
The data says otherwise. Prices were falling for six weeks before the vote. There was no overnight plunge: AAA went from $4.1493 on Nov. 3 to about $4.12 on Nov. 4, as reported by 77 WABC, roughly 3 cents. OPEC+ held its December targets steady on Nov. 1, before the election, and most members are producing below quota because of the war. No outlet has reported any such emails, and a fact check found no evidence. DOJ and the FTC said in July they are monitoring gasoline markets; we found no case or finding tied to the election. Prices fell in every state last week, and De Haan notes prices have dropped in the 30 days before every election since 2006 except 2010 (GasBuddy).
The election did move oil, but through expectations about the war, not a hidden thumb on the pump.
Trump’s Sept. 9 prediction, “Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward” (CNBC), turned out half right. His pledge to get gasoline “below $2 per gallon” (WSJ) is nowhere close. EIA’s October outlook had 2027 gasoline averaging $3.56 (EIA STEO).
What it means for your Thanksgiving
GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan expects about $3.75 by Thanksgiving. That would still be the priciest Thanksgiving on record in nominal terms, above 2022’s $3.56 (MarketWatch). A 15-gallon fill-up costs about $13.60 more than a year ago. Diesel above $6 keeps pressure on freight and grocery costs.
Risks run both ways. Citi calls the stretch to Jan. 3 a lame-duck window for “accelerated dealmaking or renewed escalation,” and ING says the selloff “seems to be overdone” (NBC News). Trump says the U.S. is “locked and loaded.” We’ll update when EIA’s weekly report lands Thursday.
| STU’S TAKE (PROPOSED)
The pump is finally giving some back: $3.98 today versus a $4.478 weekly peak on Sept. 21. Most of the pre-election drop came from refining margins while crude sat near six-month highs. The rest came from the war trade starting Nov. 2. I looked for proof someone held prices up to swing the vote, and there isn’t any; the one 25-cent overnight drop people are sharing was really about 3 cents. Drivers still pay about 91 cents a gallon more than last year, and diesel is $6.16. GasBuddy still expects a record Thanksgiving. Lasting relief means ending the war risk and keeping refineries running. They do need a break for repairs and maintenance, so let’s hope not accidents happen in critical refineries. |
Sources
- AAA national average, Nov. 10, 2026: https://gasprices.aaa.com/
- NBC News, “Gas prices fall below $4 per gallon for the first time since July,” Nov. 10, 2026: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/gas-prices-fall-4-gallon-oil-markets-trump-iran-war-russia-ukraine-rcna608498
- MarketWatch via Morningstar, Thanksgiving outlook, Nov. 9, 2026: https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026110990/gas-prices-are-finally-below-4-a-gallon-but-thanksgiving-fuel-costs-will-still-be-the-highest-since-2000
- GasBuddy weekly report, Nov. 9, 2026: https://www.gasbuddy.com/go/gas-falls-below-4-for-the-first-time-since-august-and-no-the-election-didnt-do-it
- EIA weekly U.S. regular gasoline retail price: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W
- CNBC, Brent at $117.64, Oct. 30, 2026: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/30/oil-rises-on-supply-concerns-as-houthis-attack-saudi-arabia.html
- NBC News, oil’s Nov. 2 drop, Nov. 2, 2026: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/oil-prices-slide-trump-hope-iran-talks-rcna607107
- The National, Nov. 4 and weekly oil moves, Nov. 6, 2026: https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/11/06/oil-prices-set-for-weekly-drop-on-trumps-election-rout/
- The National, OPEC+ December targets, Nov. 1, 2026: https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/11/01/opec-holds-december-oil-output-targets-steady-as-iran-war-disrupts-supply/
- CNBC, Trump’s Sept. 9 remarks: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/09/trump-oil-gas-prices-midterm-elections.html
Method note: margin figures are ENB’s own arithmetic, comparing EIA New York Harbor and Gulf Coast conventional gasoline spot prices with WTI spot (divided by 42), averaged over the week before each EIA retail survey. Spot prices are a proxy, not the rack or dealer price. Demand change compares EIA four-week averages ending Oct. 30, 2026, and Oct. 31, 2025.
