Tag: Strait of Hormuz

Middle East Escalation Meets China’s Return: Dual Chokepoints, Record Tanker Rates, and an Upward Spiral in Crude and Products

Clark Savage1

The Middle East energy map tightened sharply over the past week even as China resumed heavier crude buying. Houthi forces seized key Red Sea positions including Mocha and Perim Island, tightening control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and targeting Saudi-linked vessels. Drones originating from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, prompting a precautionary shutdown of […]

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WTI has crossed $100 as the market begins to price the scenario Goldman Sachs flagged months ago: not just a constrained Strait of Hormuz, but a simultaneous threat to the Red Sea exit that Saudi Arabia has used as its remaining seaborne outlet.

Clark Savage32

Brent settled above $101 on Wednesday, September 9, and WTI followed through the $100 level on Thursday morning in a sharp rally. Physical benchmarks had already been there. Dated Brent has held above $100 since September 3. Murban, DME Oman, the OPEC basket, and the Indian basket were already trading over that threshold. Futures are […]

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U.S. fuel prices have climbed to their highest levels since the Iran war began in late February, with diesel setting fresh all-time records and wholesale costs now exceeding the peaks seen before the first ceasefires.

Clark Savage43

How high they go from here, and how long they stay elevated, depends less on crude alone than on a global refining system that is already running near its limits. Energy analyst John Kemp noted Wednesday that the combined cost of U.S. crude and refining margins is now higher than in early April. So far […]

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China Crude Buying Jumps, and Fuel Exports Jump 29% – Jeff Curry is Spot On. It’s about the lack of refining capacity.

Clark Savage35

Chinese refiners are stepping back into the crude market while flooding product markets with extra gasoline and diesel, just as the rest of the world is running short of both barrels and refining capacity. August data show crude imports rising 6.2% from July to 8.93 million barrels per day, while refined product exports jumped 29% […]

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WTI is trading in the low-to-mid $90s this week and is more likely to test $93–$98 than to sustain a move above $100 unless there is a sharp new disruption.

Clark Savage40

Physical tightness, high product cracks, and China’s selective rebound in buying are supporting prices, but inventories, China’s still-subdued import volumes, and the existing backwardation already price in a good deal of risk. What the OilPrice article and related reporting show The Sept. 7 OilPrice piece (and the overlapping Bloomberg coverage it draws on) reports that […]

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