Some producers that locked in low-$60s oil are paying out nine figures on their hedges. Those that left the upside open kept most of the rally. Energy earnings season opens Tuesday with Halliburton.
Oil’s run this year has split America’s producers into two camps, and the report cards start arriving this week. Companies that locked in oil prices in the low $60s are paying out on those trades. Companies that left the upside open kept most of the rally. December WTI settled at $98.54 on Monday and Brent at $109.55 (Reuters). The third quarter itself averaged $85.68 for NYMEX WTI (EOG 8-K).
Most of the numbers below come from preliminary 8-K filings the companies released Oct. 7–14. They can still change when full results come out.
The hedged camp: paying for insurance
SM Energy shows how this works. As of June 30, it had 6.4 million barrels of third-quarter oil in swaps at an average $63.30 and another 5.7 million barrels in collars capped at $69.09 (10-Q). It sold its oil for $85.76 a barrel before hedges and expects a $207 million net settlement loss for the quarter (8-K). That follows $220 million in the second quarter (10-Q).
California Resources had about 64% of its expected oil for the rest of 2026 hedged at an average floor of $64.88 (10-Q). Its oil brought $83.42 a barrel before settlements and $72.46 after, a $10.96 gap (ENB calculation). It estimates a $134 million settlement loss (8-K).
Northern Oil and Gas had about 1.7 million barrels of third-quarter oil swapped at $67.55 (10-Q). It expects $51 million to $52 million in realized hedge losses, plus $300 million to $320 million in non-cash mark-to-market losses (8-K). Infinity Natural Resources still has fourth-quarter oil swaps at $63.71 and 2027 swaps at $65.08 (8-K).
The open-upside camp
Diamondback’s main oil hedges were put options with strikes of about $50 to $53, which protect against a crash without capping the upside (10-Q). Geologic named it the largest oil producer in a group of 14 E&Ps that had no price-capping hedges, or hedged 10% or less, going into 2026 (Geologic). Its oil realized $87.30 unhedged and $85.89 hedged, a $1.41 difference (ENB calculation). It still expects a $97 million cash settlement loss and an $85 million non-cash loss on derivatives (8-K).
Occidental’s oil realized $85.91, 100% of WTI, though its collars cut operating cash flow by $94 million (8-K). Reuters reported in May that the company had scrapped new oil hedges. EOG received $40 million from its hedges. It raised its third-quarter current-tax estimate to $835 million to $935 million, from $545 million to $645 million, citing higher oil prices (8-K).
Gas flips the script. Henry Hub averaged $2.95 (EOG 8-K), so gas hedges paid off. EQT expects a $100 million derivative gain, including $70 million in cash (8-K). At Infinity, gas swaps were worth $36.8 million at quarter-end, while its oil swaps were $44.6 million underwater (8-K).
What analysts are saying
Bloomberg reported in August that Canadian producers were scaling back hedges after losses (paywalled; syndicated by the Financial Post). Baytex had about $113 million in realized hedging losses through mid-August, and Saturn about $150 million in the first half. “Financial oil hedging has become less popular after a painful period of realized losses and improving balance sheets,” said Wood Mackenzie’s Ayisha Zia. Rory Johnston of Commodity Context warned against following the crowd: “When you’re losing money, you should probably be putting on hedges.”
FactSet expects S&P 500 energy earnings to rise 121.1% from a year ago, with E&Ps up 60% and refiners up 462% (FactSet).
What it means for you
- Drivers: Hedges don’t set your pump price. Crude and refining margins do, and FactSet’s Jesse Mercer expects refiners to be the standouts, with diesel cracks at record highs (FactSet).
- Investors: Check three lines in each report: oil prices before and after hedges, cash settlements versus non-cash marks, and how much 2027 output is hedged. Non-cash losses reverse if prices fall. Unhedged producers have no floor if the war premium fades.
Q3 earnings calendar
| Company | Ticker | Type | Refines | Date | Release | Call (CT) | Link | Status |
| Halliburton | HAL | Services | N | Tue Oct 20 | Pre-market (release before call) | 8:00 a.m. | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
| Valero Energy | VLO | Refiner | Y | Thu Oct 22 | Pre-market (release earlier that morning) | 9:00 a.m. | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
| SLB | SLB | Services | N | Fri Oct 23 | Pre-market, 6:00 a.m. CT | 8:30 a.m. | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
| EQT | EQT | E&P (gas) | N | Release Tue Oct 27; call Wed Oct 28 | Post-market Oct 27 | 9:00 a.m. (Oct 28) | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
| Expand Energy | EXE | E&P (gas) | N | Release Tue Oct 27; call Wed Oct 28 | Post-market Oct 27 | 8:00 a.m. (Oct 28) | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
| Phillips 66 | PSX | Refiner | Y | Wed Oct 28 | Pre-market (released earlier that day) | 11:00 a.m. | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
| HF Sinclair | DINO | Refiner | Y | Wed Oct 28 | Pre-market | 7:30 a.m. | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
| Shell | SHEL | Major | Y | Thu Oct 29 | Can’t verify | Can’t verify | IR | Date confirmed (company release); times Can’t verify |
| TotalEnergies | TTE | Major | Y | Thu Oct 29 | Pre-market, 2:00 a.m. CT | 8:00 a.m. | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
| PBF Energy | PBF | Refiner | Y | Thu Oct 29 | Release time not stated (call is before the open) | 7:30 a.m. | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
| ExxonMobil | XOM | Major | Y | Fri Oct 30 | Pre-market, 5:30 a.m. CT | 8:30 a.m. | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
| Chevron | CVX | Major | Y | Fri Oct 30 | Pre-market (materials before call) | 10:00 a.m. | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
| BP | BP | Major | Y | Fri Oct 30 | Pre-market, 2:00 a.m. CT | 7:00 a.m. (Q&A) | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
| Diamondback Energy | FANG | E&P | N | Release Mon Nov 2; call Tue Nov 3 | Post-market Nov 2 | 8:00 a.m. (Nov 3) | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
| Marathon Petroleum | MPC | Refiner | Y | Tue Nov 3 | Pre-market (materials before call) | 10:00 a.m. | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
| APA Corp. | APA | E&P | N | Call Thu Nov 5 | Release date Can’t verify | 10:00 a.m. (Nov 5) | IR | Call confirmed on IR page; release date Can’t verify |
| ConocoPhillips | COP | E&P | N | Thu Nov 5 | Pre-market | 11:00 a.m. | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
| Devon Energy | DVN | E&P | N | Release Thu Nov 5; call Fri Nov 6 | Post-market Nov 5 | Can’t verify | IR | Dates confirmed on IR page; call time Can’t verify |
| EOG Resources | EOG | E&P | N | Call Fri Nov 6 | Release timing not stated | 9:00 a.m. (Nov 6) | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
| Occidental | OXY | E&P | N | Release Mon Nov 9; call Tue Nov 10 | Post-market Nov 9 | 12:00 p.m. (Nov 10) | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
| Coterra Energy | CTRA | E&P | N | No separate report | n/a | n/a | IR | Confirmed on IR page |
All times Central; U.S. clocks fall back Nov. 1. Shell’s Oct. 29 date is from its own Oct. 7 update note; its release and call times can’t be verified. APA’s 10 a.m. CT Nov. 5 call is confirmed; its Nov. 4 release date can’t be verified (MarketBeat and Nasdaq only). Devon’s release lists “10 a.m. CDT (11 a.m. EDT)” for Nov. 6, after clocks fall back on Nov. 1, so the call time can’t be verified until Devon IR confirms. Coterra merged into Devon on May 7. Full calendar with notes in the companion spreadsheet.
| Stu’s Take (opinion)
Hedging isn’t a mistake. It’s insurance, and insurance looks like wasted money right up until the house catches fire. Last winter, many producers were bracing for sub-$60 oil, and Geologic says many locked in swaps and collars at $55 to $65. Then the war came. Here’s what I’ll be watching. SM is paying $207 million this quarter. California Resources is giving up $10.96 a barrel (ENB calculation). Diamondback’s cost was $1.41 (ENB calculation). That gap is real money for drilling and dividends. But I agree with Rory Johnston: the smart move now may be locking in some of today’s prices. The $98.54 December contract won’t last forever. When the war premium fades, the companies that re-hedged up here will be the ones smiling. |
Sources
- SM Energy 8-K, Q3 2026 realized prices and derivatives (Oct. 14)
- SM Energy 10-Q, Q2 2026
- California Resources 8-K (Oct. 13)
- California Resources 10-Q, Q2 2026
- Northern Oil and Gas Q3 operational update, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (Oct. 12)
- Northern Oil and Gas 10-Q, Q2 2026
- Infinity Natural Resources, Q3 impact of derivative contracts, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 (Oct. 14)
- Diamondback Energy 8-K (Oct. 8)
