ENB Pub Note: An interesting article from Andrew Korybko’s Substack newsletter. With Russia and Ukraine potentially interested in finally ending the war, this could be a bright spot. Doing business with Ukraine and Russia rather than bombing each other.
Although Putin might agree to some trade-offs in Ukraine as the quid pro quo for these deals, it’s not guaranteed, but they can still be clinched so long as Trump has the will to waive more sanctions without a ceasefire first.
Putin’s top aide Yury Ushakov confirmed after Steve Witkoff’s latest meeting with Putin that “Other large-scale joint economic projects, which offer significant prospects for bilateral cooperation, were also discussed in detail; some of them are now nearing the implementation stage.” This followed Putin courting the return of US investment to Russia’s resource sector in early 2025 and Kirill Dmitriev recently confirming talks on nuclear-powered data centers. Here are the five most promising joint opportunities:
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* Oil & Gas
US stakes in Russia’s energy infrastructure and companies can incentivize it to get the EU to return Russia’s frozen assets through the sequence proposed here. They’d also serve as security guarantees against Ukrainian attacks on pain of the US cutting Ukraine off if it attacks assets in which Trump personally obtained stakes for the US. A separate injection of US capital into Russia’s energy industry as the new “deal of the century” can reshape the global industry by reducing dependence on the Gulf.
* Critical Minerals
Russia’s globally significant critical mineral deposits remain woefully underexploited, but with US stakes in this industry through the abovementioned sequence and separate capital injections, it can be brought online relatively quickly for accelerating the US’ diversification from dependence on China. Russia’s sparsely populated Siberia and Far East regions can also host pollution-heavy processing facilities far away from populated and agricultural areas. This makes joint investments extremely attractive.
* Data Centers
Per Dmitriev’s recent disclosure, talks on nuclear-powered data centers represent another promising opportunity for both countries. Russia’s globally significant critical mineral deposits could be processed in the country as proposed above and then immediately put to use within these facilities. That can greatly lower the cost of constructing them, while maintaining them would be similarly cost-effective through nuclear-powered means. This could lay the basis for global nuclear and tech partnerships too.
* Power Plants
Critical mineral processing facilities and data centers can also be powered by hydroelectric dams, not just nuclear power plants, and the US can obtain stakes in all four – the facilities, centers, dams, and plants – through the return of Russia’s frozen EU assets as proposed. Separate capital injections can help fund the costs of construction in exchange for greater stakes, and any excess electricity produced through new dams and nuclear power plants can be exported to Russia’s neighbors, both in Asia and Europe.
* International Logistics
The mineral deposits in which the US recently invested in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan can reach jointly owned processing facilities in Russia through the Trans-Siberian Railway and then onward to the global market. The same goes for the US’ related investments in similarly landlocked Mongolia. As the gatekeepers of the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage through their control of the Bering Strait, separate Arctic logistical cooperation is possible too, as is cooperation on nuclear-powered icebreakers.
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“Trump Is More Serious Than Ever About Cutting Deals With Putin” in order for their long-negotiated resource-centric strategic partnership, the essence of which is described in the preceding hyperlinked analyses, to irreversibly shift the balance of the Sino-US systemic rivalry in the US’ favor. Although Putin might agree to some trade-offs in Ukraine as the quid pro quo for these deals, it’s not guaranteed, but they can still be clinched so long as Trump has the will to waive more sanctions without a ceasefire first.
