Midterm Madness: Election Predictions and the State of American Politics
In this wide-ranging political discussion, four seasoned political analysts—David Blackmon, Larry Schweikart, Charlie Garcia, and Stu Turley—break down the 2024 midterm elections just days before voters head to the polls. With early voting already underway across the country, the hosts challenge conventional polling wisdom, arguing that traditional surveys fail to account for three major demographic shifts: mass deportations, voter roll purges, and significant voter registration changes that could shift millions of votes toward Republicans.
Beyond the numbers, they explore the deeper currents reshaping American politics—from the rising influence of Democratic Socialists threatening party moderates, to the fear-based nature of this election cycle, to emerging consumer backlash against subscription-based ownership models. Drawing on voter registration data, historical precedent, and on-the-ground observations, they offer detailed forecasts for key Senate and House races while examining how state-by-state dynamics, from Texas to Maine to Arizona, will determine control of Congress and set the stage for the next two years of American governance.
Midterm Madness with Charlie Garcia, Larry Schweikart, David Blackmon, and Stu Turley
This was a hoot, and Charlie will be back on the 8th for a follow up post-election.
Midterm Madness: Election Predictions and the State of American Politics
In this wide-ranging political discussion, four seasoned political analysts—David Blackmon, Larry Schweikart, Charlie Garcia, and Stu Turley—break down the 2024 midterm elections just days before voters head to the polls. With early voting already underway across the country, the hosts challenge conventional polling wisdom, arguing that traditional surveys fail to account for three major demographic shifts: mass deportations, voter roll purges, and significant voter registration changes that could shift millions of votes toward Republicans.
Beyond the numbers, they explore the deeper currents reshaping American politics—from the rising influence of Democratic Socialists threatening party moderates, to the fear-based nature of this election cycle, to emerging consumer backlash against subscription-based ownership models. Drawing on voter registration data, historical precedent, and on-the-ground observations, they offer detailed forecasts for key Senate and House races while examining how state-by-state dynamics, from Texas to Maine to Arizona, will determine control of Congress and set the stage for the next two years of American governance.
Charlie had a bit of a connection issue, and he will be back on the 8th to cover the post-election issues with Doomberg . We love the Capital Mischief Substack.
This is a huge issue, and we are seeing that the numbers we worked on after interviewing Isaac Orr show that we are closer to 52% higher energy costs in Blue vs. Red States. They do a great job at the Energy Bad Boys and Always On Research.
1. 2024 Election Predictions & Polling Analysis
The hosts extensively discuss why traditional polls are unreliable, focusing on three major factors that skew results: deportations removing ~1.5-2 million voters, voter roll purges eliminating 2-4 million names, and massive voter registration shifts favoring Republicans. Larry Schweikart argues polls fail to account for these demographic changes.
2. Senate Race Forecasting
Detailed analysis of key Senate races including:
- Maine (Susan Collins vs. Troy Jackson) – Collins historically outperforms polls by 6-10%
- Texas (Paxton vs. Talarico) – Discussion of unlikely voter crossover assumptions
- Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Minnesota – Various competitive races with specific predictions
- Final prediction: Republicans hold Senate at 52-48
3. House Control & Narrow Margins
Discussion of the razor-thin Republican House majority (predicted 220 seats), emphasizing how a few lost races could flip control to Democrats. Specific races highlighted include Arizona 6 and Ohio 7.
I have us keeping the House -but here is the one caveat. If voting goes longer than 4 days, we will lose the House, and I will say it – to found mail-in ballots.
4. Voter Turnout Patterns
Analysis showing:
- Older voters (65+) turning out in record numbers
- Young women under 30 also showing strong turnout
- Mail-in ballot usage down compared to previous cycles
- Republicans voting by mail at higher rates than historically
5. California Politics & Policy
Discussion of California’s wealth tax proposals, the state’s massive Democratic registration advantage (4+ million), and why Republicans cannot win statewide despite any candidate’s efforts. Also covers the failed high-speed rail project.
6. State-Specific Analysis
- Texas: Republican registration advantages, California migration patterns, university demographics
- Arizona: Voter registration trends, narrow margins in recent elections
- Nevada: Democratic early voting leads but Republican election-day strength
- Florida, Iowa, Kansas: Predicted safe Republican states
7. Democratic Party Direction & DSA Influence
Concerns about Democratic Socialist (DSA) influence in the party, with discussion of how their policies (wealth taxes, regulatory overreach) are driving voters away. Hosts argue Democrats have become “deadly” rather than just “lazy and incompetent.”
8. Consumer & Economic Issues
9. Election Integrity & Voter Registration
- Subscription economy: Video games, streaming services, and vehicles moving to rental/subscription models rather than ownership
- Right to repair: Discussion of tractors and cars becoming impossible to fix without manufacturer involvement
- Economic growth: Mention of strong 3.5% GDP growth despite inflation concernsThese are my show notes from earlier in the week, and Larry has it at 52; I had 53
Emphasis on voter registration as the most reliable metric (more than polls), with discussion of state-by-state registration advantages and the importance of voter roll purges removing ineligible voters.
10. Preparedness & National Security
Brief discussion of military bases needing 90-day power independence and recommendations for home emergency preparedness (water, food, power supplies).
Check out Larry on https://www.wildworldofhistory.com/
Check out – and Charlie will be back on the 8th with Doomberg.
I am finishing up the Virginia deep dive, and we have Senator Alan Armstrong, Steve Reese, and Rey Trevinio on The Crude Truth rolling in for a panel on Natural Gas on November 4th. This will live on Substack, X, LinkedIn, and YouTube.
We will have the deep dive on US natural gas that the Reese Energy Consulting team and I have been working on out tomorrow.
We have several other political / energy stories rolling in, and it is amazing how political leaders think they can just run over voters, citizens, and taxpayers.
Please harden your homes, and let us know how well you are prepared for natural disasters.
We would also like to give our sponsors a shout-out.
Check out the World’s Greatest Podcast Show Notes at EnergyNewsBeat.co or EnergyNewsBeat.com, and the Energy News Beat Substack at:
At The Intersection of Energy and Finance – By Sandstone Group
A shout-out to Steve Reese and the Reese Energy Consulting group for sponsoring the Podcast https://reeseenergyconsulting.com/.
Data2 if you have any business systems, can you trust A? Well, they have the patent on validation. . https://data2.zoholandingpage.com/energy
And we have WellDatabase rolling, and we use their tools for the Energy News Beat weekly Rig Reports: https://welldatabase.com/
Also entering Sponsor Rey Trevino, Pecos Operating https://pecos.energy/
Texas: Republican registration advantages, California migration patterns, university demographicsArizona: Voter registration trends, narrow margins in recent electionsNevada: Democratic early voting leads but Republican election-day strengthFlorida, Iowa, Kansas: Predicted safe Republican statesSubscription economy: Video games, streaming services, and vehicles moving to rental/subscription models rather than ownershipRight to repair: Discussion of tractors and cars becoming impossible to fix without manufacturer involvementEconomic growth: Mention of strong 3.5% GDP growth despite inflation concerns
