Goldman Says Another Month Means Over $100 Brent Through 2026

Goldman Sachs has issued a stark warning: if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to normal tanker traffic for just one more month, Brent crude is on track to average more than $100 per barrel through the rest of 2026 — and potentially the full year.

The note, released Thursday after a fragile two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire was announced, highlights upside risks that remain “skewed” higher despite the truce. Goldman analysts, led by Daan Struyven, point to Iran’s continued control over vessel flows through the chokepoint. Even after the ceasefire, traffic is at a near-standstill — only a handful of vessels have passed with Iranian permission, and the strait is described as in a “supervised pause.”

The ScenariosBase case with one more month of closure: Brent averages above $100/bbl in the second half of 2026 and throughout the year.
Extended disruption + upstream production losses (e.g., persistent 2 million bpd cuts in the Middle East): Brent could hit $120/bbl in Q3 and $115/bbl in Q4.
Favorable case (gradual reopening starting soon): Prices ease toward the $80s by Q3/Q4.

Oil prices rebounded ~3% early Thursday on the uncertainty, with Brent trading near $98/bbl after earlier spikes above $110–$119 during the height of the disruptions.

This comes after weeks of escalation tied to U.S.-Israeli actions against Iran that began in late February, choking off roughly 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG flows through the narrow 21-mile-wide strait.

What $100+ Brent Means for Consumers

Higher oil prices act like an “energy tax” that ripples through the economy. U.S. gasoline could push toward $5/gallon or higher in some regions, squeezing household budgets for commuting, groceries, and heating. Food and goods prices rise as transportation and manufacturing costs climb. Historical parallels (like 2022) show this reduces disposable income, cools consumer spending, and risks reigniting inflation — potentially by 0.3% or more for every sustained $15/bbl jump.

Emerging markets and lower-income households feel it first and hardest. In places like Taiwan, analysts estimate a 1.9% CPI spike if oil averages $100 for the year.

Impact on InvestorsWinners: Energy producers. Oil majors (ExxonMobil, Chevron), upstream operators, and energy ETFs stand to see record free cash flow, higher dividends, and buybacks. U.S. shale benefits as a “swing producer.”

Losers: Airlines, logistics, and consumer discretionary sectors. Fuel is 25–40% of airline operating costs; carriers like Delta and United have already flagged margin pressure and route cuts. Shipping surcharges are hitting FedEx, UPS, and global supply chains.

Broader markets face volatility: sustained $100+ oil can delay Fed rate cuts, pressure equities outside energy, and force risk repricing across currencies and inflation-sensitive assets.

Regions Most Impacted

Asia (hardest hit): China, India, Japan, and South Korea import massive volumes via Hormuz. Slowed demand, higher costs, and potential growth slowdowns loom large. China’s stimulus efforts could be complicated.

Europe: Already energy-vulnerable post-prior crises; diesel and heating costs add pressure.
United States: Net exporter status and shale resilience cushion the blow better than in past decades, but consumers still face higher pump prices.
Oil exporters (GCC states, others): Short-term revenue windfall, though geopolitical risks persist for Iran and proxies.

Developing economies with high import dependence face the steepest inflation and growth risks.

Reactions on X (formerly Twitter)Social media exploded with the news. Users highlighted real-world pain: “That means $5 gas. Higher food prices. Higher shipping costs. Higher everything that working people can’t avoid.” (@allenanalysis)

Traders noted volatility and upside risks: “Oil risks are still skewed to the upside… Geopolitics = main driver.” (@_brendanarvaez)
Others flagged Asia’s exposure and broader market effects.

Bottom Line for Energy Markets

Goldman’s call underscores how fragile global oil supply remains despite the ceasefire. The situation “remains fluid,” and any delay in full Hormuz reopening keeps the upside risk premium alive. For the Energy News Beat audience, this reinforces the value of U.S. energy dominance, diversified supply, and why domestic production matters more than ever.

As always, watch the strait — one month could define the rest of 2026.